The Times, They Are a Changin' - Home Depot

harryhides

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By Jonathan C. Trivers
It's hard to imagine any 60-year-old looking as bad as Bob Dylan, but there is wisdom in that old face. He was talking about the 60's, but he might as well been talking about the floor covering industry and, specifically, floor covering distributors.

Some manufacturers are your competitors. Other manufacturers want to use distributors to expand their dual distribution goals. Some retailers want to buy direct but turn to the distributors for technical knowledge or training. Home Depot is now the largest floor covering distributor (selling direct to contractors), but, at the same time, their retail business seriously stumbles. Manufacturers from around the world beckon the floor covering distributor, but the dialogue starts and ends with one key question, "How many containers?"

From our vantage point, the opportunities far exceed the problems or challenges. However, one thing is for sure – the future won't look anything like the past.

Just ask Home Depot.
The company prided itself in its flooring business. This was their first business that included professional installation. Up until 1999, they had avoided installation of anything they sold including carpet and vinyl, their two principal flooring products.

Home Depot started installing carpet in 2000 and within two years they were offering installation of all flooring products. Now, they install 9,000 jobs a day from siding to laminate to roofing and hot water heaters. If there is a professional installation component for the product, they sell installation for it. Of course, Lowe's now does the same. But just when they thought they had flooring all figured out, Home Depot found itself floundering with flooring. Six months of sales decreases and they continue to struggle in the third quarter 2006. Wal-Mart is looking at flooring – massive one-time buys of do-it-yourself laminate and/or wood. Empire now will soon become a $1 billion flooring business serving young couples who have been spoiled by the "now" of the Internet and respond to "Empire today, carpet tomorrow." If their sales person comes to the home on Thursday, they will install the job on Friday.

The growth of niche flooring retailers continues unabated as fewer full-line flooring stores exist today than five years ago. Retail groups have not added new stores to any great level. But Mohawk and Shaw are creating the strongest of retail buying groups and so they act as distributors, suppliers and competitors for products and retailer's attention.

So what is the distributor model for tomorrow? That depends on what you think the manufacturer behavior, retailer make up will be tomorrow. Hopefully this convention will help flooring distributors sort out those key questions.

Jonathan C. Trivers is a columnist for Floor Covering Weekly and will present the session "TrendScape: The Most Important Changes in Our Industry" at the annual meeting.
 

Jim Pemberton

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Trivers is one of my favorite writers. I wish I could match his wit and insight.

Anyone finding that their clients have purchased Home Depot carpet with the "cleaning built in"? Any of our ChemDry friends getting carpet cleaning jobs from "built in cleaning"?
 

Jimmy L

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I found myself floundering trying to understand the true meaning of your profound post.
 

billyeadon

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Trivers

You will never find a more entertaining and intuitive speaker and analyst than Jon Trivers. On a side note today HD is already thinking about changing their direction again:

FloorDaily.net News & Interviews (February 12, 2007)

Home Depot To Reevalute HD Supply
Atlanta, GA, February 12, 2007--Home Depot said the company and its board has decided to evaluate strategic alternatives for its HD Supply business, including a possible sale, spin or initial public offering of the business. Read at FloorDaily.net
 

Scott

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Bill - now that Nardelli so messed up their business model, they'd be dumb not to go back to their roots.

Scott

PS - some of you long-timer BBS guys remember that dude Nardelli that used to post on the Blue Board? Nah, couldn't be him. LOL
 

harryhides

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Jimmy Ladwig! said:
I found myself floundering trying to understand the true meaning of your profound post.

Jimmy, it's not complicated. Today HD + Chem Dry is the 800 lb gorilla we all fear and soon it may be Walmart. Just a few short years ago HD did not even install carpet and now they're going to clean it. They've done a really lousy job of Installing, so don't hold your breath about them now doing a great job. If the customer is unhappy with the installation do you really think they will go back to HD for the cleaning service?

Also note this statement - what are you in your world, a franchise or a niche?
"The growth of niche flooring retailers continues unabated"
 

Raedan

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I found that stores like HD and Lowes attract the contractors that can't make it on there own. Weather they can't market themselves properly or are not very good at what they do. Also they attract the contractors that hire Illegals.
I don't think anyone who is professional and good at what they do has to worry.
 

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