What’s coming?

Mr Brightside

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Jay Wags
For you old timers who have been through these economic cycles what do you expect the next couple years?

I have a lot of equipment and trucks and wondering if I should sell some of the setups so they don’t sit and depreciate more.

I feel like we are gonna have a really hard 12-18 months coming but I really have no idea.

What is your plan and what would you recommend?
 
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Cleanworks

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For you old timers who have been through these economic cycles what do you expect the next couple years?

I have a lot of equipment and trucks and wondering if I should sell some of the setups so they don’t sit and depreciate more.

I feel like we are gonna have a really hard 12-18 months coming but I really have no idea.

What is your plan and what would you recommend?
Good time to evaluate your business model. Are you doing mainly residential? Could you do more commercial? What size jobs are you comfortable with? How and when are you marketing? There is lots of work out there but you have to find ways to go and get it.
 
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Jim Pemberton

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For you old timers who have been through these economic cycles what do you expect the next couple years?

I have a lot of equipment and trucks and wondering if I should sell some of the setups so they don’t sit and depreciate more.

I feel like we are gonna have a really hard 12-18 months coming but I really have no idea.

What is your plan and what would you recommend?


Using the past to predict the future is helpful, but not a crystal ball. Having been a part of this industry during rapant inflation and recession I can only share a few things that might help:

1. Many business succeed, and more than a few thrive, during times of economic hardship.

2. Cleaning is a business of maintaining what is owned, and avoiding replacement costs. That always does better in an "down economy"

3. In today's stressful climate, travel and leisure are more important than ever. Cleaning (despite our thoughts of what we do as superior) is often perceived as something your customer CAN do, but might not WANT to do. Cleaning their carpet, rugs, upholstery, and somewhat more importantly shower stalls and hard floors, including their garage (if they have a well kept one for their well kept cars) is the equivalent of letting them "buy back" a weekend.

4. Pet ownership has exploded into pets being adopted into the family as equal members. While "pet odor control" is about as appealing to pet owners as a nursing home advertising that they insert urinary catheters into your mom more gently than anyone else, focusing on how safe your cleaning method is for their pets and that you care about them is powerful marketing.

5. Commercial establishments can't find help to do cleaning. You have to decide what part of that you're willing to do, but more and more places that used to have cleaning done "in house" are outsourcing again.

Other than that, I can tell you what I've seen when things were pretty bad as the 70's ended:

The cleaners who wanted to keep doing the same things the same way barely survived. Those who embraced change and understood the difference between passing fads (i.e ceiling cleaning, whole house residential carpet dyeing) and trends grew exponentially during those times.
 
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Dr. Kleen

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Jodi Fandozzi
Ive definitely noticed that in house cleaning is going by the wayside. Businesses cant find help to do whatever it is that they need done let alone having an employee do the cleaning. I have seen my commercial side take over my residential work in the past 4-5 years. I can hardly find quality help to pick up garbage and run a vacuum on a daily basis. The few that I do have are great and they really don’t seem to want anymore work than what I currently have.
Usually when the economy goes “bad” Ive seen a jump in business, like Jim said, people want to maintain what they’ve got rather than replace or remodel.
Over the last few years I’ve moved to more of a commercial cleaning service because I cant get enough free time to do residential or make enough time to try and find and train someone to do it.
 

The Great Oz

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I have a lot of equipment and trucks and wondering if I should sell some of the setups so they don’t sit and depreciate more.
Sell some of your spare equipment. If we're looking at a recession, that stuff won't be used and will be worth less than it is today. If there's no recession, you can buy new stuff when you need it - even if will cost more than mothballing the old stuff.

It's just a good habit to clear away things you aren't using, and not having that stuff can clarify the direction of your company.
 

The Great Oz

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Ive definitely noticed that in house cleaning is going by the wayside. Businesses cant find help to do whatever it is that they need done let alone having an employee do the cleaning.
Outsourcing long been used as a way to dodge having to pay high "equivalent work" wages or reduce the number of employees under union contracts

- Stocking shelves used to be done by union store employees, now jobbers do most of it.
- My son does contract work for a company that Microsoft hired to (outsourced to) handle the contracts of all of their other outsourced services.
- Visited a relative in the hospital yesterday who was complaining about the clogged sink in his room. The nurse said that all repair services were outsourced, and the plumbing company waited until they had enough work to justify sending someone. They've even outsourced the people mopping up blood.

Now people have been conditioned through COVID to expect poor service, so outsourcing is even easier.
 

Mr Brightside

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Ya I’ve noticed there is a high demand for house cleaners they can’t find help ect… ours quit on us because she didn’t want to drive here and we paid 400$ a month for two visits

I know our businesses won’t go away but I bet that we will be cut maybe 40% that’s what I remember in 2008

I also think a lot of our numbers the last few years have been really high because people are focused on quality not on price
 

Mikey P

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Had a recent repeat call and booked for today. They had a few grease spots left by a handyman friend of theirs who was making some furniture for them.
The owner was the chief building inspector for the state of Nevada based out of Reno.

I can tell the spots on the carpet were just from the toe caps on the guy's boots. So a little bit top spot and I mean a little bit and two swipes of a microfiber and they were gone.

She was expecting me to clean the whole room and the staircase leading up to them in order to get it accomplished so they were thrilled with how easily everything happened.

Also expecting to pay $140 but got away with a $20 meal worm donation for Ivan.


As I'm pulling out of the driveway, the husband comes out tells me about his history and offers to help me out if I ever need someone to pull hoses or help with any building code issues..


#legendary.
 

steve_64

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Sell some of your spare equipment. If we're looking at a recession, that stuff won't be used and will be worth less than it is today. If there's no recession, you can buy new stuff when you need it - even if will cost more than mothballing the old stuff.

It's just a good habit to clear away things you aren't using, and not having that stuff can clarify the direction of your company.
I thought we are already in a recession.
I'm hanging on to what I have because I don't think a lot of things will be available in a couple years.
Cleaning up debt and getting things more streamlined to make life a bit easier for the coming disaster.
Going to lose our best help some time next year. That's going to hurt.
 

The Great Oz

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This is the pre-recession, where business slows because people with money are keeping it in their pockets. The real recession is when people that want work have trouble finding it.

... and, some of the big shots I've overheard are looking forward to a recession. They like humbling the labor class, and they take advantage of recessions to grab more stuff.
 

Mr Brightside

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This is the pre-recession, where business slows because people with money are keeping it in their pockets. The real recession is when people that want work have trouble finding it.

... and, some of the big shots I've overheard are looking forward to a recession. They like humbling the labor class, and they take advantage of recessions to grab more stuff.
I just wonder how bad things could get... I hope home prices drop again I want to buy my 2nd home in the next few years in Utah or Idaho
 

BIG WOOD

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Paper currency is getting ready to be a thing of the past. The government is broke and they’re planning to get every nickel and dime from us when the paper dollar gets abolished.

Every transaction will be electronic and they’ll be able to trace every transaction which means increased taxes.

When that happens, you’ll have to deposit all your saved under the mattress cash in your account. That will help in this inflation/market correction of the true value of the dollar. But it won’t help us
 

Cleanworks

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Paper currency is getting ready to be a thing of the past. The government is broke and they’re planning to get every nickel and dime from us when the paper dollar gets abolished.

Every transaction will be electronic and they’ll be able to trace every transaction which means increased taxes.

When that happens, you’ll have to deposit all your saved under the mattress cash in your account. That will help in this inflation/market correction of the true value of the dollar. But it won’t help us
Will never happen. How are you going to buy something at a garage sale? How are you going to bribe a politician?
 
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Using the past to predict the future is helpful, but not a crystal ball. Having been a part of this industry during rapant inflation and recession I can only share a few things that might help:

1. Many business succeed, and more than a few thrive, during times of economic hardship.

2. Cleaning is a business of maintaining what is owned, and avoiding replacement costs. That always does better in an "down economy"

3. In today's stressful climate, travel and leisure are more important than ever. Cleaning (despite our thoughts of what we do as superior) is often perceived as something your customer CAN do, but might not WANT to do. Cleaning their carpet, rugs, upholstery, and somewhat more importantly shower stalls and hard floors, including their garage (if they have a well kept one for their well kept cars) is the equivalent of letting them "buy back" a weekend.

4. Pet ownership has exploded into pets being adopted into the family as equal members. While "pet odor control" is about as appealing to pet owners as a nursing home advertising that they insert urinary catheters into your mom more gently than anyone else, focusing on how safe your cleaning method is for their pets and that you care about them is powerful marketing.

5. Commercial establishments can't find help to do cleaning. You have to decide what part of that you're willing to do, but more and more places that used to have cleaning done "in house" are outsourcing again.

Other than that, I can tell you what I've seen when things were pretty bad as the 70's ended:

The cleaners who wanted to keep doing the same things the same way barely survived. Those who embraced change and understood the difference between passing fads (i.e ceiling cleaning, whole house residential carpet dyeing) and trends grew exponentially during those times.
Fantastic post!
 
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FredC

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also from article

"
The organization that defines U.S. business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), takes a different view. According to the NBER’s definition of recession—a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months—we were not in a recession in the summer of 2022.

“We have a hard time believing the economy is in recession today, given a strong labor market and corporate earnings growth,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. “We also remind ourselves that recessions are uncommon, as our economy was in recession just 8% of the time over the past 30 years.”

Nevertheless, a recession may arrive soon"
 

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