Who will go belly up?

[Mikey P]

What TM manufacturers won't last another two years.


Fewest votes wins..

 

[Lee Stockwell]

Some on the list are "gone" already.

I think the Vortex Aerotech feud will give opening to someone else to swoop in and dominate that niche. I suspect I know how they will do it.

Butler is the only safe one on the list. Bane will also be around after most have bit the dust.

Thanks,
Lee

 

[R W]

Steamway....probably. They have used and abused that name too long. Dear Ralph Bloss just got to be rolling over and over and over.......

 

[Mike Draper]

AT doesnt make all their money from TM's. They have a machine shop that produces other products as well.

 

[easy1dave]

What about Namco

 

[Ryan]

Thats interesting 3 votes for hydramaster and none for prochem, last I heard hydramaster was selling more truckmounts and actually had customer service.

 

[Loren Egland]

Steam Way International is no more from what I understand.

However, there is still the Steam Way Superstore where you can get the chemicals and AMP Manufacturing that makes the Powermatic and it's stablemates.

Loren

P.S. My son in law competes with Vortex machines and is so busy they are turning down work, even though he charges more than the Vortex operators. Maybe it's his Powermatic that is taking the work away from the Vortex.

 

[Greenie]

Some on the list are "gone" already.

My first reaction is to ask Lee to expand a bit more, g'head we're not too worried about hurting anyones feelings, just say your peace.

I do think the poll is incomplete, there are some grey areas there....if a small Mfg. only builds half a dozen units this year....are they "gone"?

Cause mixing the little guys with the big boys slants the poll a bit. A Co. like Judson could build and sell 0 truckmounts.....they will still be around a year later. Even with all of their advances lately it doesn't change long term survivability, there is more to teh Co. than TM building, so when I see a few votes for them I just laugh, shows some here are clueless. And Yes a company like Bane will be here long after most have died and been buried.

I really thought this readership was more plugged in to the Pulse of the industry.

Funny Namco didn't make the cut....lol

 

[RIP IT]

Why isn't Ken Harris on the list?

 

[Mikey P]

Ken never made a Truckmount or portable.

 

[rick imby]

The ability of some organizations to stay in business and not make money can be amazing. Look at the US Government for example.


You just never know who wants to stay around bad enough.

Rick

I think some of these votes were wishful thinking. I believe that you could get a much better idea if you were a supplier of parts to these companies. If you were privy to who is paying their bills and who isn't.

 

[RIP IT]

Ken never made a Truckmount or portable.

I just meant "go belly up" in general considering how unreliable he is.

 

[bob vawter]

i am appalled that i wasn't on the list!

 

[steve g]

currently vortex in the lead, with aerotech only getting half as much votes. except for the steamway knockoffs I voted like everyone else for the top 3, looks like something of a consensus.

the thing about aerotech is the truckmount is a small part of the business, IMO they invested so much money tooling up to make them, years ago they wanna get their money back. it probably doesn't matter if they sell one either for a year like judson, the company will still be there welding and fabricating other stuff.

 

[Shawn Forsythe]

The flaw in the poll is that if you don't vote for particular manufacturer, it doesn't necessarily indicate that you have any more (or less) faith in longevity than those who you do indeed vote for.

This is because you may not have an opinion either way on those who you may not have heard of, or know little about.

 

[Bill Bruders]

Not sure it really matters to people but neither BLUEline or Vortex are manufacturers. They are product lines within the Sapphire Scientific brand of equipment. Sapphire is the manufacturer.

 

[XTREME1]

Xtreme Carpet Cleaning

 

[joeynbgky]

WHY DON'T YOU GUYS START EXPLAINING WHO AND WHY YOU VOTED LIKE YOU DID. EXPLAIN............TCS, DIABLO, JUDSON, ETC. WE ALREADY HEARD ENOUGH ABOUT VORTEX....... MOVING ON. the way the economy is. some may only be able to afford tcs, judson, etc...... why would you spend 28 grand on a bluewave, when you get a good TM for 15 grand. duh.

 

[Ryan]

WHY DON'T YOU GUYS START EXPLAINING WHO AND WHY YOU VOTED LIKE YOU DID. EXPLAIN............TCS, DIABLO, JUDSON, ETC. WE ALREADY HEARD ENOUGH ABOUT VORTEX....... MOVING ON. the way the economy is. some may only be able to afford tcs, judson, etc...... why would you spend 28 grand on a bluewave, when you get a good TM for 15 grand. duh.

I think some guys just buy what their local disty sells them, then there are some who want the best but don't do any research and just assume a 30k machine is twice as good as a 15k machine. If you where a new guy or one who didn't read the boards and just spent your time cleaning look at a bluewave and look at a judson. Which looks like a better machine?

 

[Lee Stockwell]

When I said "some are gone already" I had in mind Mr Bruder's comment. Many of the companies "sold" in the last few years were under extreme duress (ie SteamWay), and a few of those sold subsequently were discontinued.

 

[randy]

I think some guys just buy what their local disty sells them, then there are some who want the best but don't do any research and just assume a 30k machine is twice as good as a 15k machine. If you where a new guy or one who didn't read the boards and just spent your time cleaning look at a bluewave and look at a judson. Which looks like a better machine?[/quote]

I maintain that the bigger is better and constant growth in the size of equipment within the truck mount sector of our industry is pretty much over, and for good. I attribute that to several factors: 1) The days of easy credit are over, at
least for a very long time. The days of a newbie with less than perfect credit walking into a distributor and getting approved for a $40,000-$80,000 lease , with almost nothing down are are in past. There are tons of equipment leasing companies filing bankruptcy and huge amounts of used equipment on the market ( regardless of the industry, restaurant equipment, construction, heavy manufacturing equipment like plastic extrusion etc). There are tons of Americans that are just flat out shopped, overextended and upside down on loans for cars, boats, homes and under performing businesses. There is an real opportunity there for those with a few bucks to invest taking over struggling businesses with burnt out owners.

2) Carpet cleaners are figuring out that you don't need a huge, expense truck mount mounted in a moving van to make money in this industry. Sure playing around with "big boy toys" is a blast, but the fact is a cleaner with a $2,100 M-5 in the back of a 10 year old pick up truck can compete very well against a guy with a $109,000 state of the art truck mount. You don't need state of the art anything to remove soil from fibers very efficiently. In fact for the average cleaner the M-5 or similar portable will do the job more efficiently , from a cost of capital evaluation standpoint. I know guys with a few portables that are taking home twice (net money to the wife) that some of the truck mounted operators are. Operators will be looking to drastically cut their operating costs as this recession drags on , just to survive. If gas prices shoot back up (and I think they will as third world markets and developing nations rebound) driving around in huge trucks that are nice but hardly necessary to compete will disappear from our industry. I look for the $15,000 truck mount to become more the "standard" than the Prochem Everest's and their equivalent. This new electric unit the Nordic, the Savage and Judson's TNT will carve out one heck of a ever expanding niche in the lower cost, YET high quality performer end of the market. For a time these options may have been overshadowed by the bigger units (most of which were 99.9% financed) as operators under appreciated the inherent risks of getting your overhead overly inflated during a economically booming market, to only get killed in the bust.

3) This winter is going to be the one remembered as the year tons of carpet cleaners got slaughtered. Many have hung in there and fought hard for survival the last two years , but they are still barely hanging on. This winter will be a cold, long and snowy one for some and many cash strapped carpet cleaners have blown through their reserves getting over the last couple of years. Credit lines are getting reduced or cancelled without warning overnight and that won't help anyone stay afloat. Come Spring there will be a vast oversupply of used truck mounts to select from and sales of high priced, new ones rare. Some of the manufacturers claiming to be so solid and prosperous are actually highly leveraged and drowning in debt. I received a call four years ago from upper management official at Steamway after posting that I believed they would go under. He claimed they were selling their new unit beyond earlier predictions and doing far better than most of their competitors. He was of course just pissed over my post, but then went on to blame Ralph Bloss for the company's issues. Since Ralph had been dead for a few years, that pissed me off. I was sort of glad to see Steamway fail after that. It was like they don't deserve to carry on Ralph's legacy of honesty, with the lies they were now telling. I feel the same about a few other manufacturers in this industry. They have been lying to cleaners for a long, long time and totally deserve what they have coming.

P.S. Sorry about the length MARTY, I have just been thinking allot about things and this Poll kind of peaked my thoughts up.

 

[Lee Stockwell]

Awesome post Randy! The Dubais of our industry are going down...

 

[Lee Stockwell]

As bubbles burst insiders have always tried to discreetly unload their exposure and simultaneously convince others to buy in.

You did well on cashing out when you did.

 

[steve g]

I must agree with shawn, its not all doom and gloom, and no a M5 user can't compete with a guy in a truckmount, customers expect more than a plug in machine. I think in many ways this recession has actually fueled alot of upstart guys if anything. when people are out of work and can't find it, they start a business, that is how I got started myself on my own in 2002. with a business you can't get fired or laid off, that to me is the ultimate job security.

I think shawn is just worried that people don't have near as much in their 401k's

 

[Bob Foster]

I don't draw much distinction between going belly up and shutting down production. Same net result in the marketplace from an end users perspective.

 

[randy]

I must agree with shawn, its not all doom and gloom, and no a M5 user can't compete with a guy in a truckmount, customers expect more than a plug in machine. I think in many ways this recession has actually fueled alot of upstart guys if anything. when people are out of work and can't find it, they start a business, that is how I got started myself on my own in 2002. with a business you can't get fired or laid off, that to me is the ultimate job security.

I think shawn is just worried that people don't have near as much in their 401k's

Your kidding yourself, any cleaner with a high quality portable can compete in the market place and win customers. The guy with a truck mount doesn't automatically win just because he has a truck mount. In the 6-7 years since I sold both my truck mounts I have lost 2 residential customers because of it. The vast majority of new customers calling in don't even ask what type of equipment we use. Housewives of America are not interested in big, noise equipment, they just want a clean carpet. I win commercial contracts all the time against truck mount cleaners where we are using VLM or STEAMIN Demons.

With respect to getting financed on large equipment purchases, no it's not impossible but much more difficult. When mid-sized corporations that have annual revenues of over $100 million are complaining about the difficulty of getting financing & having their credit lines reduced , most carpet cleaners will certainly have difficulty. Talk to anyone that sells cars for a living, over 60% of loan applications are being rejected by the major auto finance companies & banks. Sure some of those folks can then go to the high risk lenders at 22-28% interest and still buy the car, but what idiot would do that to buy a truck mount ? Many equipment leasing companies aren't even writing new leases now , just trying to liquidate the repossessions. Another board actually has a post from a leasing company rep saying we have lots of repos available at great prices....

Is that all bad for the established operation, nope but before the last snow falls this winter you will see what I'm talking about. Are ranks are go to be thinned out a bit.

I would definitely advise any cleaner, especially those new to the industry and without substantial savings to be looking for a winter job. This winter is going to be longer and much slower than prior years.

 

[juniorc82]

will old nicks ez truckmount bite the dust lol?

 

[Lee Stockwell]

Listen young grasshopper.

Great post, but the foolish prefer to learn the hard way Randy.

Thanks,
Lee

 

[Walt]

Awesome post Randy! The Dubais of our industry are going down...

There were many companies here locally that appeared to be doing very well, but when business dried up even a little bit they were strapped and struggling. From my unscientific count there have been 5 companies in our area that seemed to be well established that have already fallen.

Oddly, I know of other companies that have benifited from the loss of competition. Personally I can say that I am glad that I'm not starting up a new company in this environment and that we are very small.

 

[Ryan]

I talked to Nick a few weeks ago and he sold 4 machines last month. That sounds like a fairly good amount for a little guy to sell to me.