I remember watching Irene track up the coast last year. Most storms, as they track up the coast, tend to break up upon encountering land, and stray away from open, warm water. Since the Carolinas protrude farther east than New England, a storm has to clear this first as it travels up the coast, usually losing most of it's rotation, so the only way for northern New England to get a direct hit from an storm that has maintained it's organization, is for that particular storm to pass the Carolina's in open water and then take a westerly turn, which RARELY ever happens. Thats exactly what is going to make this storm interesting, as a high pressure system coming down from the north places resistance on any easterly movement, and turns it back into the coast. No one is sure now how defined it will be, but regardless, it is going to be a huge system with ALOT of moisture, and a LONG duration it seems. To boot, we are coming into a full moon on the 31st, which means a lot more water in movement per tidal cycle.
Gonna be interesting.