While we have our problems, what with the over-riding political partisanship we see blocking any positive movement in Washington, we are in great shape relative to Europe. Imagine what will happen when Greece defaults. According to David Wessel in an article he wrote in the Wall Street Journal today, our current situation is quite similar to what we faced in the 20's, and he sees three potential scenarios:
1) Europe gets its act together and the pace of the world growth quickens, igniting demand for U.S. exports. American politicians agree to a credible compromise that gives the economy a fiscal boost NOW and restrains deficits later. The housing market turns up. Relieved businesses hire and relieved consumers spend.
2) Europe becomes the epicenter of a financial earthquake on the scale of the crash of 29 or Lehman Brothers 2008.
3) Europe muddles through but the U.S. stagnates for another five years mired in slow growth, high unemployment and ugly politics.
According to Wessel, "no one would intentionally choose the second or third, yet policy makers look more likely to stumble into one of those holes than find a path to the happier ending."
If we can't have number one, then I will take number three, and hopefully number 2 is not in our future.